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我国各省份地方债风险及预警实证研究

【作者】 贾晓俊顾莹博

【Author】 JIA Xiao-jun;GU Ying-bo;

【机构】 北京交通大学国家经济安全研究院;山西财经大学财务处;

【摘要】 2014年以来,经济下行压力加大,为保增长,地方政府新增融资规模加大,加上存量债务,债务压力加大,可能导致部分地方财政信用质量下降。本文通过构建地方政府债务风险预警指标体系,采用线性加权综合评价模型,通过AHP方法确定指标权重和功效系数法为指标打分,最后确定综合分值以评价地方债风险并进行预警。实证结果表明2012年以来,部分省份债务风险呈增大的趋势。各省份地方政府债务风险增加原因不尽相同,如贵州、青海、陕西、内蒙古主要原因是债务增长速度快、债务负担重;而辽宁、山西、吉林、黑龙江则主要是由于经济增长下行幅度较大导致公共财政预算收入大幅下滑所致。研究结论为加强对各省份债务风险监控、信用风险科学评估、制定合理风险防范措施提供了科学依据。

【Abstract】 Since 2014,the downward pressure on economic has been increased in China. In order to maintain economic growth speed,the new financing scale of the government at the provincial level increased.New debt and stock of debt have increased the pressure of local government debt. Debt pressure could lead to the decrease of the quality of the parts of financial credit. In this article,we construct local government debt risk early warning index system,use linear weighted comprehensive evaluation model,use AHP method to determine index weight and efficacy coefficient method for index score. Finally,we determine the comprehensive score for evaluation of local government debt risk and early warning. The empirical results show that since2012,some provinces exhibit a trend of increase debt risk. The reasons for the increased risk of local government debt of province vary. Such as for Guizhou,Qinghai,Shaanxi,Inner Mongolia,the main reason is that debt grows fast,and the debt burden is heavy; Such as for Jilin,Heilongjiang,Liaoning,Shanxi,is mainly due to the large decline of the budget of public finance income caused by the slowdown of economic growth.Our research provides the scientific basis for strengthening the province debt risk monitoring,assessing credit risk scientifically and formulating reasonable risk prevention measures.

【关键词】 地方债地方债风险风险预警
  • 【分类号】F812.5
  • 【下载频次】221
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